‘May be’ BJP can win coming UP elections. I am saying ‘may be’ because it has chance but it won’t be easy. Also, it depends on lot of factor at run time.
I wish BJP to win this election. However, as a ‘realist evaluator’ I find this is hard to happen. In this answer I am trying to analyze this based on facts and data only without mixing too much of my wish/opinions.
Please consider below two tables. They speak a lot.
1) No Wave: Except 2014 Loksabha elections, BJP performed poorly in all elections recently (few years) in UP. 2014’s outstanding win in UP (72/80 seats win) was result of Modi wave. This Modi wave was created by Modi’s own popularity, his claimed good work in Gujarat, BJP’s organized efforts, Congress government’s bad governance, policy paralysis, scams, blasts, inflation etc. There is no such reason in UP elections now.
2) No Scams: Akhilesh government did not involve so far in any scams unlike UPA government during 2004-2014. His own popularity (not party’s) is big plus for SP.
3) Short term visions: In assembly elections, voters look for short term gains only. Voters are easily lured by ‘free laptop’, India's longest expressway and that Lucknow has a metro kind of schemes. SP, BSP is good in playing those cards. Also, demonetization type ‘long run beneficial but short term troublesome’ initiatives can go against BJP as majority common layman voters of UP may fail to understand its benefits.
4) BSP Factor: Look at tables. It is clear that even in worst case (i.e. in 2014’s Modi wave) BSP could maintain 19 % vote share. BSP has very strong base in UP. BSP is definitely important competitor and will be deciding factor. They will take out big share of votes, mostly Muslims and Dalits. Even few extra Muslim votes can change things in their favor drastically. Mayavati is trying for that. Look at BSP’s Muslim candidates list.
5) Cast KHAM Factor: (I find this very unfortunate to discuss, but it is truth and can’t be avoided): In UP politics, wins are heavily influenced by KHAM (Khatariya, Harijan, Adiwasi, Muslim). To win, you must get support of any two at least. BJP may find tough time here.
6) Congress support: Even though Congress’s power is negligible in UP on its own, they combined with SP can boost their chances of winning a lot. It will help to avoid division of so called ‘secular’ votes. They still have capacity to turn some 7-10% of votes in SP’s favor.
7) No Face for BJP: BJP don’t have a CM candidate or no leader at state level that attract mass crowd. So BJP will have to rely completely on Modi.
8) Bogus Exit Polls: Few of exit polls are predicting ‘clear majority’ for BJP. Don’t rely on any TV channels exit/opinion polls. I find all are useless literally. So far, hardly anyone predicated correctly. It is workable model only in US/UK where options are less, votes are not hugely diversified. In India it can’t work. We have seen horribly bad failures during 2014 Modi’s win (272/540) and Delhi election’s Kejriwal’s huge win (67/70). No one predicated Modi’s and Kejriwal’s huge victory. I find we should completely ignore polls predictions. I don’t know - how many more exit poll should be failed for us to stop believing in them? :)
9) Lack Major Issues: Somehow there are no major issues raised in this election (other than law and order) so far. There is no major issue raised by BJP, BSP during Akhilesh’s tenure also.
10) Win formula: To win, any party will have to get around 30 % of vote share. It is tough for BJP as their traditional votes are from upper cast (22 %) and few from OBC (39 %). BJP will have to fight hard to get each vote from OBC. On contrary, for BSP their 21 % of backward vote share is guaranteed up to large extend. So with the help of some Muslim votes, they can make a big difference. Same for SP. In short, in any case, Muslim voter will play crucial role.
In short, in this major agenda-less elections, all 3 major parties – SP, BSP, BJP have chance to win. Lot will depend on cast politics. Run time factors (candidate’s casts, freebies, votes polarization, hidden support/oppose of other candidates) etc will decide the final winner.
I wish BJP to win this election. However, as a ‘realist evaluator’ I find this is hard to happen. In this answer I am trying to analyze this based on facts and data only without mixing too much of my wish/opinions.
Please consider below two tables. They speak a lot.
1) No Wave: Except 2014 Loksabha elections, BJP performed poorly in all elections recently (few years) in UP. 2014’s outstanding win in UP (72/80 seats win) was result of Modi wave. This Modi wave was created by Modi’s own popularity, his claimed good work in Gujarat, BJP’s organized efforts, Congress government’s bad governance, policy paralysis, scams, blasts, inflation etc. There is no such reason in UP elections now.
2) No Scams: Akhilesh government did not involve so far in any scams unlike UPA government during 2004-2014. His own popularity (not party’s) is big plus for SP.
3) Short term visions: In assembly elections, voters look for short term gains only. Voters are easily lured by ‘free laptop’, India's longest expressway and that Lucknow has a metro kind of schemes. SP, BSP is good in playing those cards. Also, demonetization type ‘long run beneficial but short term troublesome’ initiatives can go against BJP as majority common layman voters of UP may fail to understand its benefits.
4) BSP Factor: Look at tables. It is clear that even in worst case (i.e. in 2014’s Modi wave) BSP could maintain 19 % vote share. BSP has very strong base in UP. BSP is definitely important competitor and will be deciding factor. They will take out big share of votes, mostly Muslims and Dalits. Even few extra Muslim votes can change things in their favor drastically. Mayavati is trying for that. Look at BSP’s Muslim candidates list.
5) Cast KHAM Factor: (I find this very unfortunate to discuss, but it is truth and can’t be avoided): In UP politics, wins are heavily influenced by KHAM (Khatariya, Harijan, Adiwasi, Muslim). To win, you must get support of any two at least. BJP may find tough time here.
6) Congress support: Even though Congress’s power is negligible in UP on its own, they combined with SP can boost their chances of winning a lot. It will help to avoid division of so called ‘secular’ votes. They still have capacity to turn some 7-10% of votes in SP’s favor.
7) No Face for BJP: BJP don’t have a CM candidate or no leader at state level that attract mass crowd. So BJP will have to rely completely on Modi.
8) Bogus Exit Polls: Few of exit polls are predicting ‘clear majority’ for BJP. Don’t rely on any TV channels exit/opinion polls. I find all are useless literally. So far, hardly anyone predicated correctly. It is workable model only in US/UK where options are less, votes are not hugely diversified. In India it can’t work. We have seen horribly bad failures during 2014 Modi’s win (272/540) and Delhi election’s Kejriwal’s huge win (67/70). No one predicated Modi’s and Kejriwal’s huge victory. I find we should completely ignore polls predictions. I don’t know - how many more exit poll should be failed for us to stop believing in them? :)
9) Lack Major Issues: Somehow there are no major issues raised in this election (other than law and order) so far. There is no major issue raised by BJP, BSP during Akhilesh’s tenure also.
10) Win formula: To win, any party will have to get around 30 % of vote share. It is tough for BJP as their traditional votes are from upper cast (22 %) and few from OBC (39 %). BJP will have to fight hard to get each vote from OBC. On contrary, for BSP their 21 % of backward vote share is guaranteed up to large extend. So with the help of some Muslim votes, they can make a big difference. Same for SP. In short, in any case, Muslim voter will play crucial role.
In short, in this major agenda-less elections, all 3 major parties – SP, BSP, BJP have chance to win. Lot will depend on cast politics. Run time factors (candidate’s casts, freebies, votes polarization, hidden support/oppose of other candidates) etc will decide the final winner.
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